The Fate of the Mandate

"Do you not have a heavy burden of justification to show authorization under the Constitution" for the individual mandate? asked Justice Anthony Kennedy today at the SCOTUS argument on the individual mandate.

My prediction: Kennedy will find that the government has met its heavy burden. All the current breathlessness about the administration's "train wreck" this morning is hype. The individual mandate will survive. The vote could easily be 6-3. An 8-1 result would not shock me.

Of course, I'd be pleased to be proven incorrect.

"Orgies of insincerity"

Michael Kinsley on Rush Limbaugh (via Radley Balko's Twitter feed):

These umbrage episodes that have become the principal narrative line of our politics are orgies of insincerity. Pols declare that they are distraught, offended, outraged by some stray remark by a political opponent, or judicial nominee, or radio talk-show host. They demand apology, firing, crucifixion. The target resists for a few days, then caves in and steps down or apologizes. Occasionally they survive, as Limbaugh probably will, but wounded and more careful from now on.

More careful means less interesting. Limbaugh is under no obligation to keep saying offensive things just to keep me entertained. Still, it’s a pity.

Of course, the insincerity is on both sides. The pursuers all pretend to be horrified and "saddened" by this unexpected turn of events. In fact, they are delighted. Why not? Their opponent has committed the cardinal political sin: a gaffe.

A gaffe, as someone once said, is when a politician tells the truth.

Kinsley was the someone who said that. (And to be clear, he's not defending Limbaugh; he notes that "the truth" here certainly isn't.)

Justice Carter?

Gregg Easterbrook calls YLS prof Stephen Carter "the nation’s leading public intellectual" and says he's "a fine candidate for a Supreme Court opening."

Carter was one of my favorite professors at Yale, in part because he was one of the few who seemed to take his job as a teacher seriously. I don't agree with every policy position he's taken, and I think his novels, while well-crafted, are ultimately unsatisfying. But there's no denying that he'd bring to the bench a serious work ethic and deep regard for the rule of law.

No Lie

Ramesh Ponnuru on PolitiFact:

The reason we have politics at all is that we disagree, sometimes deeply, about how to promote the common good, and we need a peaceful and productive way to resolve or at least manage these disagreements. We disagree about how to improve U.S. health care, and we disagree about how each other’s proposals to change it should be characterized. The pretense of PolitiFact, and other media “fact checkers,” is that many of our political disputes have obvious correct answers on which all reasonable people looking fairly at the evidence can agree -- and any other answer is “simply not true.”

This pretense really is false, and like dishonesty, it is corrosive.

Glenn Greenwald makes essentially the same point here.

"The Most Successful Cult in the World"

Are North Koreans really mourning one of the vilest tyrants in history? Daniel Foster thinks so:

North Korea can be looked at as the most successful cult in the world, and after bribing the military and other key allies, the vast majority of the state’s resources were dedicated to (1) raising the Kims to divinity and (2) hermetically sealing the state to outside discourse. After nearly three-quarters of a century of wholesale brainwashing, it is highly likely that a huge swath of the population of North Korea is in the grips of a kind of mass psychosis.

More links on North Korea here.

High Stakes

Daniel Foster on Mitt Romney and the $10k bet:

If Mitt walked around with a platinum scepter and a coat of Dodo feathers I could see calling that a gaffe, but things have gotten silly if one of the things we're looking for in a candidate is his ability to consistently condescend to us about the basic, verifiable facts of his existence, just to make us feel like he's "one of us."

Exactly.

"Don't Cry. Bill Kristol Says It's Still Not Too Late for Paul Ryan"

This pretty much sums it up.

"Loopholes"

Kevin Williamson on what is and what isn't a loophole:

While “new revenue” has triumphed as a euphemism for “tax hikes,” “loophole” has triumphed as a dysphemism for “intentional tax policy.”

Our tax code is not really all that riddled with loopholes. Loopholes, properly understood, are unintentional ambiguities in a system that can be exploited to undercut the intent of the system’s designers. What we’re talking about in the tax code is not, for the most part, a collection of loopholes. The mortgage-interest deduction is not a loophole; it is the product of intentionally (and stupidly) constructed public policy, an attempt at social engineering through the tax code. Likewise, most of what Democrats dishonestly describe as special breaks for oil companies are in fact tax subsidies designed to encourage domestic manufacturing, and available to any firm that engages in anything that can be defined under the law as manufacturing. This is not an accident, either: The geniuses in Washington think that they can politick good manufacturing jobs into existence.

Jack Shafer explained why journalists shouldn't use the term "loophole" in 2007.

Sanity

I am pleased -- and honestly, a bit surprised -- to see the sane and humane attitudes of many National Review readers, as reflected in comments on some of the OMG-the-sky-is-falling posts in The Corner about same-sex marriage. The readership over there seems a lot wiser and more temperate than some of the writers.

The comments on this bizarre and creepy post are a good example. I like this response to it:

Didn't know that anecdotal stories had anything to do with the marriage debate, but I'll give mine. I woke up early on Sunday morning; took my 4 year old cocker spaniel for her walk; came home and got my 14 month old daughter ready for mass (you can find us every Sunday at 9:00 mass at a Jesuit church in Chelsea); went to breakfast where she had a waffle; went to Whole Foods for milk and fruit; and then took her to the parade where she was the joy of those gathered on the little street where she watched in awe of all of the people. My daughter has 2 daddies (well a dada and a daddy). She is a beautiful, independent (for a 14 month old), happy, young girl. She is being taught to respect others, be kind to her dog, share with others, love Jesus and say her prayers. And as she grows older she will be taught to vote Republican.

Yes. Lucky girl.

Good Morning

Quote of the Day:
“Rivera will show absolutely anyone, including rivals, exactly how he throws the cutter. When I asked him why he was so unguarded, Rivera said, 'It’s a blessing from the Lord: when he gives you something, it’s yours.' It took me a moment to realize that he wasn’t saying that he had an obligation to share the blessing, but rather that no one without the blessing was going to throw his cutter. God had doled out his favors parsimoniously.”
~ James Traub, "Mariano Rivera, King of the Closers"

Song of the Day:
Kings of Leon, “Closer”

Happy Birthday:
Louisa May Alcott
Peter Bergman
Madeline L’Engle
C.S. Lewis
Mariano Rivera

Screening and Common Sense

Shouldn't we be pleased, rather than outraged, that some government officials are able to skip the TSA security procedures?

John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi, whatever you think of them, are pretty obviously not likely to be plotting terrorist attacks on our nation's airlines. Isn't this kind of risk-assessment-based screening what we need more, not less, of?

Now, if only TSA could extend this logic to 3-year-olds and grandmothers . . . .

Happy Thanksgiving

Reason.tv gives thanks for property rights.

"He's spending nonexistent money on helping people we think you might be sympathetic to"

Reason on What the #$%^ Has Obama Done So Far?

Olbermania

Here's an amusing ThinkProgress post on MSNBC's suspension of Keith Olbermann; it contains so many updates and walkbacks as to be nearly incomprehensible ("Oh, hold on -- Comcast doesn't actually own NBC yet. Our bad.")

I don't understand the theory that the knives were out for Olbermann at MSNBC. Isn't his show their highest-rated offering?

Reagan, Palin, and Noonan

Sarah Palin refers to Ronald Reagan as "an actor," and Peggy Noonan responds . . . pointedly:

Excuse me, but this was ignorant even for Mrs. Palin. Reagan people quietly flipped their lids, but I'll voice their consternation to make a larger point. Ronald Reagan was an artist who willed himself into leadership as president of a major American labor union (Screen Actors Guild, seven terms, 1947-59.) He led that union successfully through major upheavals (the Hollywood communist wars, labor-management struggles); discovered and honed his ability to speak persuasively by talking to workers on the line at General Electric for eight years; was elected to and completed two full terms as governor of California; challenged and almost unseated an incumbent president of his own party; and went on to popularize modern conservative political philosophy without the help of a conservative infrastructure. Then he was elected president.

The point is not "He was a great man and you are a nincompoop," though that is true. The point is that Reagan's career is a guide, not only for the tea party but for all in politics.

Meow!

"A strident and self-justifying base-flatterer"

Ross Douthat on Sarah Palin:

Cultural authenticity may be her bread and butter, but politically she’s established a consistent identity as a strident and self-justifying base-flatterer who rarely strays from her go-for-the-jugular talking points. There’s a narrow slice of the electorate that loves that kind of thing, and a broader population that doesn’t — and given the choice between saying the thing that broadens her appeal and the thing that plays best with the narrower group that already loves her, Palin always, always seems choose the latter. Conservative writers have been giving her advice on how to break out of this box for more than two years now (this week it was Kevin Williamson, imagining how she might boost her credibility as a presidential candidate), and I think at a certain point we all just need to stop playing make-believe and acknowledge that she isn’t interested.

I don't know if it's really much a choice on her part. From the little I've seen of her, it looks to me more like she's scared to death of departing from her talking points, lest she look even less intelligent than she already does.

I had not seen her in months until election night on Fox. She was in full talking-point, you-betcha mode. On the plus side, her hair and makeup looked fabulous.

Perriello Loses

I suppose this question has been answered.

After Tuesday

Amid the giddy predictions of a GOP tidal wave, Ross Douthat and Megan McArdle both offer some pre-election perspective on the post-election policy landscape. McArdle:

So I worry that if Republicans get in, we'll end up with a huge budget problem. And I also worry that if Democrats retain control, we'll end up with a huge budget problem. I see no evidence at this point that I should worry more about one than the other. We have a huge deficit problem. And I'm pretty sure that whatever batch of politicians we elect next Tuesday is going to make it worse, rather than better.

And it's not just the politicians who are to blame. Pundits on both sides love to talk about the wisdom of the "ordinary voters" (Michael Barone does it here), but I see no indication that the electorate, as a whole, has stopped demanding more government than it's willing to pay for. Many of the same voters who are mad as hell about the deficit this year will squawk indignantly the minute the budget cutters so much as look at Social Security, or even ask that nice teacher down the street to kick in 1% of her salary for her own health insurance.

The politicians may be hiding their heads in the sand on entitlements, but that's because the voters like it that way. The electorate is like a 23-year-old who sometimes feels really, really bad about her maxed-out credit cards but isn't remotely ready to face up to the kinds of lifestyle changes she'd have to make to get out of the hole; instead, she tells herself it'll work out somehow, and buys another pair of shoes on Zappos. Because after all, she urgently needs some gray peep-toes to match her new handbag.

There's a lot of this-time-it'll-be-different bluster out there on the right, but I'm not really buying it. Swing voters are mad at Obama because the economy is still a mess, and they sense that he's spent a bunch of money we don't have, and they feel a little uneasy about that. But the economy will improve, and Democrats will shriek in outrage about cuts to school lunch programs, and a few Republicans will act like clowns, and the deficit will seem far less urgent in a year. Swing voters — who seem to enjoy being angry — will find something else to be angry about. And then we'll all be too busy talking about 2012 to think about actual policy.

I say this as someone who will likely be fairly pleased, on a partisan level, with the results of tomorrow's elections. I hope the GOP does take the House. I'm ambivalent about the Senate, because Obama will have an easier road to reelection if he can spend the next two years running against the eeeeeevil Republican Congress, and he can't do that as easily if his party still controls one chamber.

So yes, I'll cheer if Nancy Pelosi loses her gavel, but I see no reason to expect that the next two years will be any different from the last decade in terms of fiscal sanity. For true progress on the budget, we'll need a lot more Paul Ryans, not just in Congress but in the electorate.

Cutting the Clichés

A new rule of thumb that I predict will save me time in 2011: Whenever I come across a writer using the word "slash" to describe a reduction in government spending, I will immediately stop reading the piece.

Happy Halloween Weekend

We have pumpkin-carving plans, but I'm actually loving these painted beauties. Maybe next year.


Image and instructions at Country Living via Censtational Girl.

2011 Calendars

Decor8's annual calendar round-up starts here and continues here, here, and here.


There are lots and lots of lovely ones to choose from if you're sick of "America's National Parks" or "Adorable Puppies" from that tacky seasonal store in the mall.

For the past several years I've bought little desk calendars like this one. I love having something small and pretty close at hand. But for 2011 I bought a blank mini-calendar from Impress, and I'm going to embellish it myself (like they've done here and here.)

[Image from Decor8.]

Voting Irregulatiries

In Falls Church?

"Think happy thoughts"

David Brooks on the Democrats' healthy self-esteem:

Democrats and their media enablers have paid lavish attention to Christine O’Donnell and Carl Paladino, even though these two Republican candidates have almost no chance of winning. That’s because it feels so delicious to feel superior to opponents you consider to be feeble-minded wackos.

On the other hand, Democrats and their enablers have paid no attention to Republicans like Rob Portman, Dan Coats, John Boozman and Roy Blunt, who are likely to actually get elected. It doesn’t feel good when your opponents are experienced people who simply have different points of view. The existence of these impressive opponents introduces tension into the chi of your self-esteem.

I imagine there will be plenty of witch and masturbation jokes at this weekend's Stewart/Colbert rally, and not so much about Rob Portman.

Falls Church BJ's: Review

The classic above (from PostSecret) pretty much sums up my feelings about large discount stores. But when a BJ's opened practically in our back yard, I thought I might as well check it out. Here's a review.


BJ's is offering two limited-time membership deals at the new store: $35 for a 15-month standard membership (normally it's $45 for 12 months) and $70 for a 15-month membership where you earn 2% cash back on most purchases (normally it's $90 for 12 months). I chose the $35 option. I signed up online and immediately got a printable page with a bar code that I could take to the store for my official membership card.

The tyke and I made our first trip the other day. The parking lot was easily navigable, with lots of carts available. I noticed immediately that the carts have seats for two kids in the front basket — apparently everything is bigger at BJ's.

We headed first to the customer service counter to get my card. There was a short wait, but once I got to the counter and presented my print-out it took about 15 seconds to get the card. The guy took my picture while I was standing at the counter, with what looked like a bar-code scanner (and oh, what a lovely picture).

Then we were off to explore the premises.

Main impression: Their merchandise is cheap. And big. I realize that this is the entire concept of these places, but somehow I was unprepared for the scale of some of the products. I would see a giant bottle of shampoo, for example, and think "Well, $7.99 — that's a decent deal." And then I'd realize that the price was actually for a case of three giant bottles.

So I kind of get why people are crazy for these stores. I just don't know where I would put all that stuff. My pantry is not set up to accommodate five-gallon drums of pickles, no matter how wondrously cheap they are.

My purchases:
- Enormous jar of Nutella. I mean, enormous. For $4.69. Insane.
- Giant box of frozen pumpkin ravioli. This was probably a mistake, as it takes up an entire shelf in our freezer. But it's October, and I've got pumpkin on the brain.
- Package of six Brita water filters for $28.99.
- Four-pack of Secret deodorant for $7.49. My deodorant needs are taken care of until roughly 2015.
- One home decorating magazine (regular size, but 20% off the cover price).

Check-out was quick and easy. Apparently they don't provide bags, which is weird but I suppose makes sense given the scale of much of the merchandise. I could have used a bag, though.

The store has a Verizon Wireless kiosk, an eyeglasses center, an auto service center, and a small cafe. I didn't look closely at the electronics section, but I saw lots of TVs and iPods. I would definitely check out the BJ's prices if I was in the market for a TV. There were plenty of DVDs and a smallish books section.

Oh, and now I know the answer to the question I ask the universe every December: "Who is selling our neighbors these giant inflatable snow-globe lawn ornaments?"

The place was clean, neat, and not overly crowded. The employees were helpful and reasonably friendly.

Bottom line: BJ's will not replace my regular grocery store (Safeway) for routine grocery purchases. At this point in our family life, it doesn't make sense for us to buy a lot of our food in bulk. But for some non-perishables — diapers, batteries, detergent, toiletries — we can definitely save money at BJ's. I just need to keep in mind that we don't have unlimited space at home to store those items.

If we had five ravenous teenagers and a McMansion, I'd be there once a week. Since we don't, it'll likely be more of a once-every-six-weeks stop.

Amy Butler Bag

Any of my various acquaintances who sew should feel free to make me this bag.

Anyone?


Free pattern here.

Deep Enough?

Chevrolet's new slogan is apparently "Chevy runs deep."

Huh?

Mickey Kaus: "What is there about Chevy that runs deep? Red ink? Work rules? Influence in the Obama administration?"

UPDATE: The slogan also reminds me of the Live song "Deep Enough," part of the time-honored driving-is-like-sex genre (it's in The Fast and the Furious). Sample lyric: "Does he run it deep enough / to take you there?"

Retaliation Against Whistle-Blowing Cops

"Isn't the Blue Wall of Silence really just the most successful Stop Snitchin' campaign in history?"

Chair Seats

Here's a nice tutorial on recovering chair seats from Southern Hospitality. I love the fabric she used.


Doesn't that make you want to run out to a yard sale and find some old chairs?

[Photo from Southern Hospitality.]